The euphoria that surrounds Tahrir Square has reached new heights, new levels that exceeded those even experienced back in February 2011 when President Mubarak was ousted. Again, the army has chosen to back the people, placing Mohamed Morsi as well as other senior Muslim Brotherhood officials under house arrest and swearing in a technocratic interim government.
Despite obvious comparisons with the historical 2011 movement things are very different this time around. Although Egyptians remain uncertain on what the future holds the majority of voters will no longer dare to mix politics and religion and in that lies the biggest improvement in Revolution 2.0.
One dire situation however, that requires immediate attention is the poor health of the economy. The Egyptian economy has taken a severe blow under the guidance of the brotherhood. Egypt’s economic reality after revolution 2.0 is much worse. The country is suffering from rocketing inflation levels (18%), a growing budget deficit (40bnUSD), depleting currency reserves, severe gas and oil shortages, a depreciating currency, crippling IMF conditions, low FDI and record high unemployment. The list is long and can be extended by selecting any economic indicator of your choice. Whoever plans to take the country forward, needs to address this economic ticking bomb.
So how can the interim government or any government for that matter ensure a path to economic stability? The most crucial step starts with bringing back security to the country.
As many protesters have voiced,
“At least under Mubarak we were safe, under Morsi we’ve become hungrier and now on top of that we are scared”
A weaker police presence has resulted in a rise in unprovoked crime. Looting and assaults have become recent phenomena in Egypt. A weakened police force was the product of the first revolution, memories of police officers shooting live rounds at demonstrates has not yet evaded the minds of the people. The police have since struggled to re-enter the hearts of the Egyptian people. In stark contrast, the army has come out as the knight in shining armor, and surely they will not repeat their catastrophic snail pace in handing over power and ensuring a democratic process. The army must ensure that the electoral transition takes place much speedier this time round and avoid past criticism that they are masterminding their own power drunken agenda.
A cloud remains on how the Brotherhood will react to all of this? One can imagine they would be feeling hard done by, let us not forget that they were democratically elected. Some western leaders have condemned the recent activities as a “military coup” – strictly speaking a democratically elected government was overthrown by the military and surely such behavior cannot be supported as per democratic ideologies. However, in Egypt’s young democracy the majority of Egyptians will take no notice of such claims. Western leaders instead are faced with a dilemma in setting their standpoint on how they position themselves with an ousted democratically elected president (who they don’t really like) versus an ousted dictator (who they really liked).
When Egyptians stormed the streets again, with some sources stating 33 million protestors, one might suggest that the military merely acted to defend the collective will of the people. The military in Egypt is seen to have a dual role – naturally and as in other countries across the world, they must defend the country from external attacks. However, and as we have seen they also take action when the people voice their anger with the internal governing body - be it democratically elected or not. Such a process will make tomorrow’s leaders think twice once in power. The process in Egypt seems more like a dynamic form of democracy and not one where the people's voice is only heard every four years in the ballot boxes.
Thus far, the ousted President Morsi has denounced the use of violence. Despite his call for peaceful support some of his followers have instead insisted that this is a direct attack against Islam. I spoke to a young anti-government demonstrator and asked him if he was not scared of going to the streets? He replied calmly:
"They have already killed my future (the brothers), if I die on the streets then at least I will die a respectable death"
Such polairised view points would suggest that we can expect the number of clashes and the death toll to rise in the immediate future. The interim government needs to unify Egypt and include the brotherhood in future dialogue. Their exclusion would enhance radicalism. Political dialogue or rather the lack of it is what led to demise of President Morsi. Tomorrow’s elected government must not repeat the same mistakes as President Morsi.
In conclusion, revolution 2.0 bares unforgiving resemblance with the events that saw the end of President Mubarak’s’ 30 year stronghold. Mr Morsi did not have the same longevity, but in his short span of time at the helm he has managed to divide the country by setting policy purely oriented towards his own party’s political motives, and in the process he created an economic bomb. Now, the interim government is to defuse this bomb; and the most important starting point is to ensure security and to unite the Egyptian people. Although Egypt’s economic reality has never been worse, the country is uniquely positioned in familiar territory having come out of a revolution only 30 months ago.
Its only a mistake if you do not learn from it.
